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- 积分
- 1091
- 威望
- 710 点
- 资产
- 2299892 金币
- 注册时间
- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
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# L* b W% H* p* K2 D8 N$ PGM Overview0 o* Q7 j% X+ _
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs8 O; W; t. J! m# D/ {+ I; A7 t% l
• Objectives W+ t- r6 o* ^9 k" l
– What do we “WANT” to do?& |. p, R, Y. t6 e
• External Analysis
/ n# d$ H9 r6 e0 B1 V! ?– What do we “NEED” to do?! s3 A9 X* M1 p6 R
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
% G% s) m/ B5 M8 r• opportunities & threats, R! {2 J5 f# |4 V
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
1 G0 t. D; C( k; `/ B+ X• Internal Analysis
. ]# t5 R0 Y3 p3 ^7 s6 w0 F– What “CAN” we do?' S1 O$ V P0 N. i8 }& g
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
8 x7 a. r; G0 Y; h• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
]7 v3 K7 l1 T9 R) R– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES7 e$ N( w7 i3 K3 q' Z
9 }- m$ t& S+ T% r
• Alternative Evaluation
* \+ Q8 _6 h/ ]– What are the options?5 R( U- o, G, @- T( ~- B M
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options+ r( L( ]# {. R' d' \
– How does this option “FIT”?
0 h! { \3 f2 ]) K% {- }– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
8 T1 l- s3 U0 i, n– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) ' q& z1 o- z4 I
+ D6 r3 e9 R8 v# r$ l* _+ K. V
• Decision, V# @+ \# W8 ?
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
" {) f) X( K5 W" P! w A9 t– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING3 m) n7 W3 D) p; O l* Q; J
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
2 \! w. K R, o# D8 g• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?; x) F: R: N" {! D
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
; C; ~; Q7 N$ T }# s8 V• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
. q" Q) M6 n& o! i+ _• Why NOT the other options?4 j6 ~( X. K9 D4 z$ Y5 Z" l. G
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes2 ^, I7 n- P' K \, S5 Q5 C( B- r
need to be made?
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1 K7 H8 }2 T' w1 z7 |. F! t• Action Plan
9 r, u% P/ ]; t' H+ c• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
% V w' y$ o( l! O9 H- Q– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your9 E- |5 D. y8 h3 X
decision0 V4 ]1 z D6 i+ h
– details about timing. R4 E7 H$ T% [0 Q
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
6 Y+ k) _( V) @– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
% i0 J- F8 V, T, n– make sure to consider both the short term and long term5 Y- {5 T6 l1 M, g( [
. a# y2 }( `" D' @6 }4 L, Z
Firm Valuation9 O1 p3 v9 U/ U# C. A4 r5 }& y! w
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.0 ?0 E9 J2 b: t' j# O
• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
; Y Y. t) O9 V& O" s' J( g0 x& z– Net Book Value
& m" j" ^. R! ~) m1 b9 x" @– Economic Appraisal
6 C9 s$ U9 w7 j# h' `( u9 r. m- z– Capitalization of Earnings
" O' X2 R$ R- H" W2 a: F• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
8 ?9 j2 p6 u6 R" l1 C7 K Pcompany is worth.0 w) W6 h" i" x, R# q. |
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
' L8 C6 D8 B- V% j% P# w+ z B) Z \& `3 ~! I1 j
Net Book Value (NBV)/ f. x) }1 \/ g5 J
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities- P t3 o" |. o' t& [# x
• a.k.a.. the equity
& D" r, U$ q9 a: g– Does not account for the present market value of the assets' L. f2 K+ b# r8 X7 v
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet$ U$ y, C0 u( k% A/ v- O. {
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business) J% X% \( B! j" L l
) N- I: T8 a3 u2 c% O: W$ v6 t) A
Economic Appraisal (EA): {; e, m6 G8 ~& ^
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
" R9 Q' ]; z+ `% h n5 Z- F– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities6 U# l3 R, r& }/ Z
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets E) f* [0 I. w0 H& h' g
; K6 i$ B, }" S0 @4 i( { Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
( m3 k. `. E* I R2 p- y7 x9 q+ o– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S9 z0 m+ m$ a. Z5 X# u! T
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
( {' n! {' u( a4 F9 f. J– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
% ^2 F9 v+ z7 a+ x1 U– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)6 z3 p/ j- H1 H) v" V2 U8 T
• Assuming changes (projected statement)
. V; m$ A& e, f' w0 ]; Z• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
, t# K6 d- d& g– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
" l& E* z# s' O& D* R: g– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
0 E6 ^9 |+ ?7 E2 c' s: l0 W* T( g# x% G& T! ` N( r
• P/E Multiple9 t8 B7 @. d# ^ O% \+ c( |
– Rules of thumb;+ C3 ~9 x3 e0 e% y# f
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
& O9 V* g, J# d" r/ J1 ~6 ]from 5 to 15.
# U3 t# r! C. [4 z7 z5 U' v• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
( ]+ p1 D, \) z7 c! l+ c• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
2 p# f) }! [( n! ?% ^: p– growth increases a multiple
/ ?6 F. V8 x. P0 |1 ` h– risk decreases a multiple
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Their Associated Ratios
% i6 u2 f/ X! }( y; T" j/ Z• Profitability;
- ]$ |& K# Q1 d7 F }- k– Business goal - to make $$
9 l1 v+ [: ^. a: S* J, Z– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales" P f5 ~& x5 f5 |& a+ Z, b
• Stability;! ?" o: w4 E: v4 D9 t2 C. ^" N
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
2 b2 ]- v, j- u' H; N5 R( ~– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
; O2 C# J1 [+ m: K$ L2 L/ Y& y8 D. f; o8 X' U, T
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios, b+ m6 w. z' e, C# j! d1 {
• Liquidity;9 Z" h) p3 j7 P0 F* k0 d- A
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
! t$ c/ m1 O$ U2 D– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
/ q! p/ @5 z) @9 i) K) Zobligations)
/ M/ F2 C: k2 A• Efficiency;
9 Z/ d1 ~; }. S/ `$ s– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
6 }% w8 R. V" D' p0 q# x& ?. i9 v– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments8 a$ k u4 H1 y' x9 s7 g7 ]
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• Growth;
; D6 w" z4 _+ z0 R: L) S– Business goal - to increase in size, B" ^' d5 Y" v# J1 {, w: D
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
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Interpreting the Ratios
3 `1 |& U; J$ {" u, n8 O• Profitability;
/ x7 O6 _, B! V. x/ K6 b– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)8 O& t! S0 g/ Y; C2 [
I/S items * 100 = %
( N( C# c% _! @. S% e. r# T Sales i; Y' _/ l+ i: _- M
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales4 X$ G5 m7 n f' I# L4 g6 r
– Return on Investment/Equity
$ Y! T6 X. D) M0 C4 }Profit ATB4D = %
1 o3 ?2 y) m* {Average Equity
+ b2 h; |. t9 p# r3 P[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]! i" ?5 l# N" R5 j3 G
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
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- P! X) n3 y2 E4 f- U% f( ]7 n• Stability;
$ g( \! K k! o– Net Worth: Total Assets/ K* s% A$ [/ e3 N% ?, @2 I5 b, L
Total Equity = % % S" I' t6 j" r1 P
Total Assets
. w& L6 I3 W. l% l6 o• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
) }4 a" ~* X2 O& m* Q– Debt to Assets- W2 a# h9 E' e0 v( i" n2 E- n
Total Debt = %
7 G# A) Q9 ]( [Total Assets; H2 W! n0 w3 T8 g7 x& B
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt; d5 C4 I( a$ m+ E
– Interest Coverage
/ ]( B6 S2 f. A: o: ^ EBIT = # times
6 M2 ]$ {* [4 c2 pInterest Expense- S c! h; j+ w# B
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
1 y) T; Q+ P/ K( m( q. B; ^$ v! G( W; [0 u) r% v
• Liquidity;
: a+ i7 ^( R3 R8 |- J– Current Ratio
& G0 s( H; E$ O9 \2 _Current Assets = X:1& L) }9 ?8 T. X: W. z
Current Liabilities
* B1 Q5 |; A+ G) R$ j• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
# l/ ~7 ~4 f9 B5 uRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
* s: v7 _% x! `' d* |– Acid Test4 P# \+ f" ~% e7 u; b
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:11 _/ L% `3 @% ~+ X/ z) P' O
Current Liabilities
6 n4 p5 g, m+ ~" U: o/ x( L• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
, n1 E9 p/ d5 t# Q% J2 q1 T3 v# pRULE OF THUMB: 1:1
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– Working Capital4 E! f$ h" m/ T
C.A - C.L = $X
4 K: r: U$ g- H9 t x- J• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid8 E7 }/ q$ b2 {. S6 |% L
& N2 N7 C4 ~; T
Efficiency;
5 n; F: ]7 q+ V7 o! f6 y1 u3 V– Age of Receivables ^& H( N0 l, d# r- W1 T
Accounts Receivabl = # Days& z& c( s/ Y- ` y1 @
(Sales / 365)0 K+ a1 o7 F: `
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
& ^, j7 L, W u! H& y* J* N/ T
7 P5 U* M* K% w– Age Of Payables
: Y1 i+ i) g/ a/ [Accounts Payable = # Days
4 ?+ C% i" H+ P(Purchases* / 365)
2 W% C! u! P5 O7 L1 ]• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
8 h0 l3 J* j( @( t. W+ B4 N5 W8 V+ [, W4 h7 t
– Age of Inventory
& @. P, H6 A8 U2 C8 a Inventory = # Days
6 Y6 g# p2 a V8 y(COGS / 365)
( x7 z! H& T! }2 u• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
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& E" b* u9 v& A9 |* R A• Growth;
5 u5 q- y4 }$ E! v– Sales
0 k M, f6 y( o' n' M; u– Net Income- m. i3 o+ e* G" H
– Total Assets
. Y$ n7 d9 ~7 X# B) I: {' p– Equity
- S0 x' J. k+ w2 s8 AYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
7 \. c+ r1 y Y6 m' g Yr. 10 e9 v8 I, E6 W) A5 E
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
1 g6 c% p/ ]( q2 ^$ y J+ R" C" B& U7 S o+ I0 d' |6 P
Understanding Ratios
y: |1 ?! V9 o: \: M7 \8 }• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
, n% [: |. W1 H* v• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio) {# Z/ E* G D7 i, Q$ k
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”/ G; o* ^& m5 o& c6 E2 K: E- P2 o
– Which number caused the change?
/ ~) F, i$ m. J6 l7 ]– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.4 O+ q6 c+ z+ Q- [* q, e+ {% m0 r
– Will these trends continue?
# B% d/ |( G7 k& d( A: U4 d! a; F– How does the company compare to the industry?
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Classifying Costs
$ z0 f; N. p+ a3 w8 P/ |+ k# q• Variable Costs2 ~& j3 ]- w$ F, G$ `
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
, M/ J$ ?# _. M$ n1 F# \! m, P• Fixed Costs
/ @ s( z, j- _, Z– cost that does not vary with volume |
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